This August saw nearly 200 Warhammer 40,000 players gather in Orlando, Florida for the first US Open Grand Tournament in nearly two years – one that will define competitive play for the rest of the year.
After eight hard-fought rounds, the dust settled and victors were declared… but which armies made the top spots, and what does that say about the game’s competitive meta? Mike Brandt, Warhammer’s live events generalissimo, has dug deep into the stats. What he found may surprise you.
Terrain Levels Off the Go-first Win Rate
There’s much conversation around the advantage conferred by having the first turn in Warhammer 40,000. It’s a common phenomenon in turn-based games – even chess has this advantage, with white’s win rate estimated at between 52 and 56%.
The go-first win rate in Warhammer 40,000 is reckoned at around 57-58%. This is due to several factors, most prominently the threat of a powerful alpha strike from the first player – which distorts the way armies are built to either take advantage of, or defend against, this possibility.
The events team at the US Open in Orlando focused on battlefields to mitigate the effects of alpha strikes, making sure they were still visually appealing and fun to fight over.
Their efforts bore fruit, with an average go-first win rate of just 52%. This suggests that a thoughtful terrain set-up can be a major factor in reducing first turn advantage, leading to closer, more fun games. That said, one event doesn’t set a trend all on its own, so we’ll be carefully watching the results of the next two US Opens in October and November.
“The two switching terrain set-ups had a massive impact,” agrees Brian Jones, who piloted his Imperial Knights to sixth place. “My Knights were presented with decisions, movements, and objectives that allowed me to compensate for the large amount of obscuring terrain.”
You Don’t Need a Meta Army to Compete
While it’s true that several armies that did well were riding the wave of the current meta. As predicted last month, the Adeptus Mechanicus and Adepta Sororitas had strong showings, with Richard Siegler and John Lennon taking those factions to first and second place.
Third place, however, went to an army that bucked the trends. Jack Harpster’s Blood Angels were built around jump-packing Space Marines bouncing around and smashing face in melee. Jack won seven out of eight games, chalking up the third-highest victory points total.
Jack used board control, terrain, and patience to keep his models alive as long as possible, ensuring his opponents couldn't move safely without risking a devastating retaliation from his Sanguinary Guard and Vanguard Veterans.
He also pulled out a tremendous narrow win in his final game. With just a couple of models left against a superior force of Aeldari looking to Assassinate his Sanguinary Ancient, he looked at using the Upon Wings of Fire Stratagem to take his Ancient off the table long enough to keep him alive. Realising this wasn't possible, as the Sanguinary Ancient doesn't have the CORE keyword, Jack boldly advanced the Ancient on the central objective – and heroically survived to score an 86-82 win.
“The fantastic terrain allowed many ordinarily off-meta lists to shine,” Jack explains, “including my Blood Angels. In testing, I found that a combination of army-wide speed and brutal combat, coupled with combat tricks like Angel’s Sacrifice to shut down counter-offensives and blunt melee damage, was very potent.
“I almost always picked Stranglehold, Oaths of Moment, and either a mission secondary or Retrieve Octarius Data, and camped in the centre of the board to earn my points, sending missiles into my opponent’s half and daring them to come forward to try to even up the points lead.
“When they obliged, I got to leverage my full melee power and games turned bloody, fast.”
Older Codexes Still Work
Armies with a new-edition codex tend to have a broader tool kit designed with the present iteration of the game in mind. But that doesn’t mean that armies with older codexes can’t compete, as Brian Jones proved with his barnstorming Imperial Knights performance.
Knights can have trouble with the current meta and missions, so Brian took a fresh approach.
“I’m running the Freeblade Lance Army of Renown from War Zone Charadon: The Book of Rust,” says Brian. “The Freeblade qualities open many fun doors, and being able to stack two on each of my big Knights created some interesting combinations, giving me four powerful, survivable models with Objective Secured.
“The unique Warlord Trait allows one Knight to benefit from a Household Tradition of your choice, which I gave to one Questoris Knight Magaera, ending up with a 2+ armour save, Objective Secured that counts as 10 models, re-rolls on all failed hits in melee, heroic interventions at 6", and one free re-roll per battle round.
“Very few lists are prepared to face a full roster of Toughness 7 and 8 hulls. Almost no list is ready for them to have Objective Secured, which is the single most significant factor to my success. Killing a Knight to flip an objective is a tall order!”
Every Faction Can Compete
Space Marines, Necrons, Drukhari, and Adeptus Mechanicus were the most popular factions, at over a third of the field. Most other factions showed, however, from Genestealer Cults to Renegade Knights.
Win rates varied, as is to be expected from a game that combines luck and skill. Some factions were on excellent form – 14 Drukhari players won nearly 64% of their games – but it’s clear that the tournament format allows pretty much any army a decent chance to win.
The Meta Adapts
The recent Adeptus Mechanicus FAQ left them in an interesting place. The trend had been towards maximum-sized units of Skitarii Rangers or Vanguard, which were extremely points efficient. The FAQ shook this all up, and Richard Siegler’s top-place Forge World Metalica list reflects this.
While Richard still had one large Rangers unit as an anchor, the rest of his force comprised smaller units of both Rangers and Vanguard, supporting multiple units of Sicarian Infiltrators and Ruststalkers.
These elite Skitarii hit hard and move very quickly using deployment abilities, faction effects for extra movement, and transports. They’re very efficient for their points and formed a solid core to many Adeptus Mechanicus armies at the event.
Other players doubled down on Pteraxii and Serberys units to best take advantage of points efficiencies and Stratagems.
Morvenn Vahl was extremely prominent for the Adepta Sororitas, with decent shooting, terrifying close combat, buffs, and high durability (especially with Celestian Sacresancts defending her) making her a top pick.We’ve got two more US Open tournaments planned this year, one in New Orleans LA on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd of October, and the other in Austin TX on the 19th, 20th, and 21st of November. With new codexes out between then and now, we may see the meta shift even more!