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  • Metawatch – How Did Going First Affect Win Rate at the Warhammer Open New Orleans?

Metawatch – How Did Going First Affect Win Rate at the Warhammer Open New Orleans?

Louisiana’s most vibrant city hosted hundreds of Warhammer fans at the US Warhammer Open on the first weekend of October. The New Orleans attendees were marvellous, from sportsmanship and an incredibly high standard of painting to hard-fought competition. Mike Brandt from the Warhammer Events Team was there to keep a close eye on how the competitive meta is evolving now we’re back to gaming in the flesh.

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Mike: Eight rounds of epic Warhammer 40,000 battles were played in the bayou, and combined with the eight at the Orlando Open, we now have over 1,200 games of data for our crack teams to analyse. These are the most interesting stories from the data. 

It’s important to note that the US Open format includes a number of unique elements which contribute to what the data shows. This neither overrides the mass of data collected across the Warhammer community at large, nor does it yet stand as a complete data set. It’s only numbers! Your own gaming experiences will be different almost anywhere you go, and too many factors contribute to each of these statistical points for them to stand as a hard-and-fast truth.

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Sportsmanship Trumps All

Data aside, one of our favourite things about hosting Warhammer Opens are the incredible stories we hear about sportsmanship. Warhammer events – whether it’s at your local store or a massive tournament – give you the chance to make new friends with shared passions from across your region, country, or the world. This opportunity was taken full advantage of across the many tables of Warhammer played at the US Open New Orleans.

Here’s a great example. The US Open events split the field into brackets based on your record from the first four rounds. Naturally, this includes a bracket of players who lost their first four games – we call this the Consolation Bracket. 

One player, who’s not a tournament regular, played against mostly Space Marines opponents in his early rounds, each of whom delivered him a sound defeat. An Adeptus Astartes player himself, he received tons of good advice from his opponents which turned his event experience around completely – he went on to win all four games within the Consolation Bracket. During the final round, he caught up with the judges to let them know how much he appreciated the friendly advice his opponents gave him, which he clearly put to good use.

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Another chance to be sporting presented itself during the championship game. With the top spot on the line, when Richard Siegler forgot to bring his Pteraxii onto the board during the Movement phase of Battle Round 3, it could have been a game-ending mistake. Instead, his opponent, Brad Chester allowed him to put them on the table anywhere they could have deployed, even though they were well into the Shooting phase and they technically should have counted as destroyed. In a thankful response, Richard left them in the back of his deployment zone doing nothing, rather than unleashing them to cause havoc.

Turns out, in a two-point Siegler victory (84-82), that was one of the critical moments – and while Brad Chester ended up short on victory points, he certainly won in the realm of being a great sport. Choosing to forgive the real-life human across the table for a simple mistake shines a light on what it means to be a true champion in almost any competitive event. As Olympian Jesse Owens once said, “

takes a great deal of love, fairness, and respect for your fellow man. Put all these together, and even if you don't win, how can you lose?”

The Go-first Win Rate

So let’s get into the numbers. The two most-discussed data points around Warhammer 40,000 balance over the course of 2021 have been Go-first Win Rate and faction balance. The US Open format seeks a more fair experience on these fronts to ensure fun is had across all tables. 

With a little over 1,200 games’ worth of data so far, Orlando and New Orleans don’t paint a complete picture of Warhammer in the wild, but the tournaments have provided some interesting results.

Globally, using publicly available data from the many events and games played through several third-party apps, Go-first Win Rate (GFWR) sits as high as 57% to 58%. While the ideal benchmark should ostensibly sit around 50%, at most a +/- 5% variance (45% to 55%) is desirable. At New Orleans, the overall GFWR was 49%, compared with a 52% GFWR at Orlando. 

We also assessed round by round GFWR, and the results were more in favour of going second at New Orleans than at Orlando (especially in the later rounds).

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That said, Rounds 4 and 5 also saw a higher GFWR at Orlando. Based on this repetition of results, the events team will look at mission order, terrain, and round timing leading up to the next US Open in Austin, just to check why those two rounds might be showing a consistently higher advantage. Contrastingly, Rounds 1, 7, and 8 had very low GFWRs, so we’ll take a peek at those results as well.

Ultimately, what makes for good events is how much fun the attendees had on the day. We’re very pleased that it went so well – but there’s always room for improvement, and we’re already figuring out how the next one can be even better for all involved.

The Meta Is Only About Mechanical Men and Evil Space Elves… Right?

The other main subject in the global meta these days is the dominance of Adeptus Mechanicus and Drukhari in overall faction performance. While our final table did see Richard Siegler’s Adeptus Mechanicus and Brad Chester’s Drukhari battle it out in that epic 84-82 game (watch it here!), we saw some pretty amazing results from several factions in New Orleans that bucked expected trends. 

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While Imperial Knights and Harlequins lacked enough results to identify much trending (beyond a couple of really good Knight players), the Adeptus Custodes repeated their above-expected performance from Orlando. 

Despite a large number of results and an 8-0 champion, the Adeptus Mechanicus on the other hand fell well below expectations at only a 48% win rate. Drukhari repeated their above-60% performance, and they hold the highest combined faction win rate following both events.

Just as with the GFWR, most faction win rates should ideally rest in the 45-55% range. As such, the team will continue to keep an eye on event-specific variables, such as terrain set-ups, paying special attention to any factions performing above or below this range.

The bracketing system also provides some interesting opportunities for variety in the top 16 results at an event, where players who have a strong weekend can work their way into the top and compete there for glory among the best of the best. 

One of the exciting things about a tournament versus a league type format is the opportunity for any player to perform well and have a great weekend.

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We even saw an incredible run by our youngest attendee Cooper Schwarz – who is 15 years old – as he made it into the top bracket and earned a top 10 finish with an unusual take on the Death Guard. 

His competitive list included a virulent close-combat bomb of buffed Plague Marines charging out of a Rhino to great effect. He eventually ran into a buzzsaw in his 5th round versus Brad Chester in what was a thrilling youngest player against the oldest player matchup – though Brad’s experience won out. 

Once again, in a show of stellar sportsmanship, “Old Man Chester” – as he’s called in his local gaming circles – had a chat with Cooper after the game, gave him some top tips, which undoubtedly helped the young man finish in the top 10 of the event.

Final Thoughts on Warhammer Open – New Orleans

Some factions are still performing below expectations – perhaps with codexes that haven’t been updated for the current edition yet – but plenty of individual generals were able to defy the odds. Robert Moreland of Team Texas, for example, piloted his Astra Militarum to a 6-2 finish and 22nd overall placing.

Regardless of faction, guests at the US Warhammer Open in New Orleans forged new friendships over the crucible of Warhammer 40,000 for three amazing days.


Thanks, guys. The meta always changes, but one thing is certain – we’ll be seeing you next in Texas, streaming incredible games of Warhammer from the beautiful Fairmont Hotel in downtown Austin. It all happens from the 19th to the 21st of November, and while tickets are currently sold out, you can still join the waitlist for late-drop tickets.